Israel Announced a New Invasion of Gaza. Is It Bluffing?
New York TimesMAY 22
Israel Allows Limited Aid Into Gaza
Above: Displaced Palestinians collect cooked food from a community food kitchen in Jabaliya, northern Gaza on May 19, 2025. Image copyright: Ahmad Salem/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The return to war will not save the hostages. Furthermore, Israel's policy of blocking aid from entering Gaza is creating widespread starvation across the strip. Allowing in a token amount of aid will not significantly improve the humanitarian situation in the strip. Indeed, both sides need to make concessions so that the ceasefire can be fully implemented and the hostages returned.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has waited long enough for Hamas to release the hostages and has finally decided that enough is enough. As per the plan laid out by U.S. President Donald Trump, Israel will take control of Gaza and relocate its population for humanitarian purposes, as it would be cruel to force Gazans to live in the ruins of the strip. Furthermore, Israel will allow some aid into Gaza so that civilians get what they need without Hamas' intervention.
Pro-Palestine narrative
It is quite clear, given the statements by Israeli officials, that the decision to allow a small amount of aid into Gaza is a cynical ploy to continue the genocide while preventing international intervention. Israel's goal has been the same since day one: destroy Gaza and its people. Trump, just like Biden, has lied about the war and has fully supported Israel as it continues its genocidal policies.
Metaculus Prediction
There's an 18% chance that at least 500,000 Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.