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Snapshot 7:Fri, Nov 29, 2024 5:38:07 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

IAEA: Iran to Expand Nuclear Program

IAEA Report: Iran Plans to Expand Nuclear Program

Above: Director General of the IAEA Rafael Grossi (L) and head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Muhammad Islami, in Tehran on Nov. 14, 2024. Image copyright: Fatemeh Bahrami/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran plans to install over 6K extra uranium-enriching centrifuges at its Fordow and Natanz facilities in a move the UN watchdog warns would significantly expand its uranium enrichment capabilities.

  • On Thursday, the IAEA's confidential report also claimed that Iran plans to enrich uranium up to 5% purity using eight IR-6 centrifuge cascades recently installed at Fordow, adding to its existing infrastructure of over 10K operating centrifuges.This expansion follows a censure resolution passed by the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors, which urged Tehran to increase cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and provide explanations for uranium particles found at undeclared sites.

  • It added that the plans would see Iran install 32 additional clusters of more than 160 machines alongside 1,152 advanced IR-6 machines.Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has indicated that reimposing UN sanctions could push Tehran to reconsider its nuclear doctrine and revoke its commitment to abstain from developing nuclear weapons.


The Spin


The expansion of nuclear capabilities is a legitimate response to Western failures in upholding commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and continued sanctions pressure. The program remains peaceful, and Iran maintains its right to develop nuclear technology for civilian purposes.


Iran's nuclear expansion and hints at doctrine changes represent dangerous escalationescalations that could lead to weapons development. The installation of advanced centrifuges and increased enrichment capabilities — combined with a lack of cooperation with IAEA inspectors — raises serious proliferation concerns.


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Iran's nuclear expansion and hints at doctrine changes represent dangerous escalations that could lead to weapons development. The installation of advanced centrifuges and increased enrichment capabilities — combined with a lack of cooperation with IAEA inspectors — raises serious proliferation concerns.


Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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