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Report: High-Ranking Military Officials From Brazil Pressured Bolsonaro to Stage Coup

Above: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks to the press at Brasília airport on Nov. 25, 2024. Image copyright: Ton Molina/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that high-ranking Brazilian military officers in late 2022 sought to pressure then-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro to stage a coup to keep his election opponent and president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, out of office.

  • This comes as the news outlet has gained access to 53 audio recordings obtained by Brazil's federal police, including messages in which a colonel tells retired Brig. Gen. Mário Fernandes, then the deputy secretary general for the presidency, that "it [would] be either a civil war [then] or civil war later" and that they should speak to Bolsonaro.

  • The former president and 36 of his allies — including four cabinet ministers and a former intelligence chief — were formally accused last week of plotting a coup, trying to violently abolish the democratic rule of law, and involvement in criminal organizations after his 2022 election loss.


The Spin

Right narrative

These audio recordings further expose that the right-wing Brazilian leader has been politically persecuted in a blatant example of leftist lawfare. It was hardly a surprise that Brazilian authorities formally called for him and several of his allies to be charged with coup plot, as such a move has been expected since his first day out of office.


Left narrative

Even if this coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. Investigations have revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. The political influence of Brazil's military can't be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.



Metaculus Prediction




Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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