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Report: High-Ranking Military Officials From Brazil Pressured Bolsonaro to Stage Coup

Above: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks to the press at Brasília airport on Nov. 25, 2024. Image copyright: Ton Molina/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that high-ranking Brazilian military officers in late 2022 sought to pressure then-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro to stage a coup to keep his election opponent and president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, out of office.

  • This comes as the news outlet has gained access to 53 audio recordings obtained by Brazil's federal police, including messages in which a colonel tells retired Brig. Gen. Mário Fernandes, then the deputy secretary general for the presidency, that "it [would] be either a civil war [then] or civil war later" and that they should speak to Bolsonaro.


The Spin

Right narrative

These audio recordings further expose that the right-wing Brazilian leader has been politically persecuted in a blatant example of leftist lawfare. It was hardly a surprise that Brazilian authorities formally called for him and several of his allies to be charged with coup plot, as such a move has been expected since his first day out of office.

Left narrative

Even if this coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. Investigations have revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. The political influence of Brazil's military can't be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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