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Trump: Tariffs to be Imposed on Mexico, Canada, and China

Above: Donald Trump arrives during a "Get Out The Vote" rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, US, on March 2, 2024.  Image copyright:  Al Drago/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • US Pres.-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged to use an executive order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China after entering office on Jan. 20, 2025.

  • Trump said he'd levy a 25% tax on all goods coming in from Canada and Mexico while Chinese products would attract an extra 10% on top of additional tariffs he plans to impose through executive orders. The President-elect claimed he'd continue with tariffs until these nations curbed alleged illegal immigration and drug trafficking.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Pres.-elect Trump's bold tariff strategy offers both a transformative vision for the US economy and a strong tool to achieve foreign policy goals. He aims to revitalize American manufacturing, protect domestic jobs, and counter unfair trade practices from nations like China. These tariffs will create a fairer global market, penalizing countries that exploit the system while favoring US workers. Moreover, the revenue from tariffs could fund critical initiatives while incentivizing companies to invest at home.

Democratic narrative

Donald Trump has primed an economic time bomb that would devastate US industries, inflate consumer prices, and shatter global supply chains. His policies risk a trade war, skyrocketing costs, and widespread job losses in industries reliant on integrated North American and global trade. His plan undermines existing trade agreements, destabilizes diplomatic ties, and ignores the reality that tariffs are paid by US consumers and businesses. This short-sighted policy guarantees economic pain without solving financial issues in the long run.


Metaculus Prediction


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