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Romania: Long-Shot Presidential Candidates Head to Runoff

Above: Save Romania Union (USR)'s Elena Lasconi addresses party members and supporters during her first public appearance after the final results of the first round were announced in Bucharest on Nov. 25, 2024. Image copyright: Daniel Mihailescu/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Independent presidential candidate Călin Georgescu will face off against former TV anchor Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR) in a surprising runoff matchup — the first in its post-communist era in which neither of the two largest parties had a candidate.

  • Georgescu took the lead in the first round with 23% of the vote, and Lasconi defeated incumbent prime minister and pre-ballot front-runner, Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democrats, by a few thousand votes, 19.17% to 19.15%.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Romanians are fed up with bureaucrats in Bucharest dragging their country into the war in Ukraine, which only serves the interests of NATO, the EU, and the US military-industrial complex. That's precisely why mainstream candidates failed to make it into the runoff and why Georgescu will win the presidency.

Pro-establishment narrative

Don't take for granted that those who voted for Georgescu did so because they wanted Romania to stop supporting Ukraine. His support comes from people dissatisfied with mainstream parties who chose him because he ran as an independent candidate. There's no reason to panic, as Lasconi will defeat Georgescu in the runoff.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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