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Putin Approves Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

Above: Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi on Nov. 7, 2024. Image copyright: Maxim Shipenkov/AFP/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree revising the country's nuclear weapon doctrine, lowering the threshold for when first-use of such weapons can be deployed.

  • According to the publicly available document, scenarios in which a non-nuclear country attacks Russia with the involvement or backing of a nuclear state will now be considered a joint attack in which a nuclear response is possible. The same applies if a non-nuclear attack is deemed a critical threat to the nation's sovereignty, as well as that of its ally Belarus.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin is sending a clear signal to the West by concerningly upping the rhetoric around Russia's use of nuclear weapons. In making such a move, he is hoping that Western nations will think twice before continuing to support Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

These revisions to Russia's nuclear doctrine were put forward long ago and were approved as scheduled. This is unrelated to the US escalation of the conflict.


Metaculus Prediction


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