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Ecuador: 60-Day Emergency Declared Over Drought, Wildfires

Above: Aerial view of a bush fire on a hill in Quito on Sept. 24, 2024. Image copyright: GALO PAGUAY/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Ecuador's plight is a harrowing preview of a global future shaped by unchecked climate change. Once celebrated for its biodiversity and abundant hydropower, Ecuador now endures a water crisis that has crippled livelihoods and ecosystems. This interconnected catastrophe, driven by human inaction and industrialized nations' emissions, isn't Ecuador's alone. It's a stark reminder — as the planet warms, fragile systems everywhere will buckle, and the human costs will be devastating.

Narrative B

Ecuador's current crisis reveals a tale not solely of climate change but of profound mismanagement. While the drought cripples hydroelectric output, decades of neglect, and short-sighted policies have magnified the fallout. Politicians rested on fleeting hydropower gains, ignoring calls to diversify energy sources and repair neglected thermoelectric plants. This saga underscores environmental unpredictability and human-made vulnerabilities, deepening Ecuador's woes.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 25.8% chance that more than 33% of the earth's land area will be covered by forest in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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