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"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer met Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping on Monday at Brazil's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro and called for a "strong UK-China relationship."

BBC News

This is the first meeting by a UK prime minister with Jinping since Theresa May in 2018. It comes after Starmer and Xi spoke on a phone call last August and Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited China in October.

South China Morning Post

Reuters

While Downing Street said Starmer will continue to have "serious and pragmatic discussions" with China, the prime minister stated he wanted the UK's "relations [with Beijing] to be consistent, durable, respectful."

Guardian

Meanwhile, Jinping said China and the UK enjoy a "broad space for co-operation" and that the two countries "should take fostering greater development, better-serving our peoples and contributing more to the world" as their goals.

The Sun

In March, the UK had accused "Chinese state-affiliated actors" of two "malicious" cybersecurity breaches, sanctioning two individuals and an entity connected to group APT 31. China described the allegations as "disinformation."

Verity

As of Q2 2024, China was the UK's fifth largest trading partner, making up 5.1% of total trade despite a 20.3% decrease compared to the four quarters ending in Q2 2023.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

Independent #4254

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The Telegraph #

Time #3917

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer called for "stable and pragmatic engagement" with China prior to a bilateral meeting with Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping at Brazil's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.

BBC News #

The meeting was the first by a UK prime minister with Pres. Xi since Theresa May in 2018. Starmer and Xi also spoke on a phone call in August this year, while UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited China in October.

South China Morning Post #

Reuters #

Starmer stated that a "strong UK-China relationship" was "important" for both countries, seeking relations to be "consistent, durable, [and] respectful" while "avoid[ing] surprises where possible."

Guardian #

Chinese state media has reported that Pres. Xi claimed China and the UK "enjoy vast space for cooperation," while the two countries should "adopt rational, objective perspective on each other's development."

In March this year, the previous UK Conservative Government accused "Chinese state-affiliated actors" of two "malicious" cybersecurity breaches, sanctioning two individuals and an entity connected to group APT 31. China described the allegations as "disinformation."

Verity #

As of Q2 2024, China was the UK's fifth largest trading partner, making up 5.1% of total trade despite seeing a 20.3% decrease compared to the four quarters ending in Q2 2023.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk #

Whilst frank dialogue and cooperation will always be necessary between two major international powers, there are many concerns that now is certainly not the right time for Starmer to be rubbing shoulders with Beijing. China continues to threaten Taiwan, and refuses to condemn Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, with the incoming Trump administration already angered by the UK's decision to rescind sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, posturing towards Pres. Xi will only alienate the US further. The UK must think twice about any closer relations with China.

Express.co.uk

Express.co.uk #

Keir Starmer to meet Xi Jinping despite warning not to cosy up to China

Inews.Co.Uk

Inews.Co.Uk #

Trump spells trouble for Starmer’s China pivot

There is huge potential for cooperation between China and the UK, and Prime Minister Starmer has made no secret that he is seeking a renewed relationship with Pres. Xi. Yet so far, the UK's behavior does not match its rhetoric, with trade embargoes and an increasing military presence in the South China Sea undermining Downing Street's hopeful messaging. David Lammy's visit to China in October was a step in the right direction, but more must be done to assure Beijing that Westminster is willing to step out of America's shadow and make use of the opportunities on offer.

Chinadaily

Chinadaily #

Lammy's visit a new start for China-UK ties

Global Times

Global Times #

If Britain is sincere in resetting relations with China, it must be consistent

There is a 19% chance that, if China invades Taiwan before 2035, the UK will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?

The US-China Conflict

Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images

UK Prime Minister Starmer, Chinese President Xi Jinping Hold Talks at G20 in Brazil

China

Politics

United Kingdom

Economic conditions & trends

While frank dialogue and co-operation will always be necessary between two major international powers, there are many concerns that now is certainly not the right time for Starmer to rub shoulders with Beijing. China continues to threaten Taiwan and refuses to condemn Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, with the incoming Trump administration already angered by the UK's decision to rescind the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, posturing towards Beijing will only alienate the US further. The UK must think twice about any closer relations with China.

There's enormous potential for co-operation between China and the UK, and Starmer has made no secret that he is seeking a renewed relationship with Jinping. Yet so far, the UK's behavior doesn't match its rhetoric, with trade embargoes and an increasing military presence in the South China Sea undermining Downing Street's hopeful messaging. Lammy's visit to China was a step in the right direction, but more must be done to assure Beijing that Westminster is willing to step out of America's shadow and make use of the opportunities on offer.

There's a 19% chance that, if China invades Taiwan before 2035, the UK will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Brazil: Keir Starmer Meets Xi Jinping at G20 Summit

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Brazil: Keir Starmer Meets Xi Jinping at G20 Summit

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