Study: Sudan War Death Toll Much Higher Than Records Show

Study: Sudan warWar deathDeath tollToll muchMuch higherHigher thanThan previouslyRecords recorded, new study findsShow

Published NOV 15 2024

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Above: Members of Sudan's armed forces attend a graduation ceremony for new recruits in the eastern city of Gedaref on November 5, 2024. Image copyright: AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

TheWhile informative reports like this are a welcome surprise, the actual death toll resulting from the ongoingSudan unrestconflict incould Sudanbe remainsas unknown.high Anas estimated 125K civilians have— already died due to both violence and hunger, according to available data. Sudan currently has the most extensive and most dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today. Despite these facts, Western media and institutions refuse to cover the issue, which is likely why no one knows how awful the crisis truly is.

Operation Broken Silence

ThereThe isUN ameticulously 37%tracks chanceboth theviolence- overalland populationhealth-related deaths in Sudan willto faceassess highthe acuteconflict's foodseverity insecurityand (IPCcoordinate Phaseeffective 3humanitarian orresponses. above)While andthis decreasedata tohelps underinform 20resource millionallocation byand Februaryintervention 2025strategies, accordingthe UN requires much more funding to address escalating needs. Millions of people will face dire consequences if the Metaculusworld predictiondoesn't communitystep up and give the Sudanese what they need.

Situation Reports

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 37% chance the overall population in Sudan will face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and decrease to under 20 million by February 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.