Study: Sudan war death toll much higher than previously recorded, new study finds

Above: Members of Sudan's armed forces attend a graduation ceremony for new recruits in the eastern city of Gedaref on November 5, 2024. Image copyright: AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

While informative reports like this are a welcome surprise, the actual death toll from the Sudan conflict could be as high as 125K civilians — due to both violence and hunger. Sudan currently has the most extensive and dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today. Despite these facts, Western media and institutions refuse to cover the issue, which likely why no one knows how awful the crisis truly is.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 37% chance the overall population in Sudan will face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and decrease to under 20 million by February 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0