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Snapshot 6:Fri, Nov 15, 2024 4:54:52 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

Sudan war death toll much higher than previously recorded, new study finds

Sudan war death toll much higher than previously recorded, new study finds

Above: Sudanese refugees from Ethiopia assemble in a UNHCR camp in Gallabat on September 4, 2024. Sudan's army, commanded by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has been fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, killing tens of thousands. Image copyright: AFP via Getty Images***PLEASE REPLACE WATERMARKED IMAGE***

The Spin

AsThe Sudan'sactual civildeath wartoll continues,resulting overfrom 90%the ofongoing all-causeunrest and violent fatalities in KhartoumSudan Stateremains gounknown. undetected,An implyingestimated that125K othercivilians regions also have aalready far larger death toll. More people have died indue theto conflict,violence but preventable diseases and starvationhunger, wereaccording theto majoravailable causes of deathdata. ToSudan preventcurrently masshas deaths,the wemost needextensive full-scaleand diplomaticmost anddangerous humanitarian effortsemergency, tosurpassing endall theother waremergencies andin managethe itsworld effectstoday.

As Sudan's civil war continues, over 90% of all-cause and violent fatalities in Khartoum State go undetected, implying that other regions also have a far larger death toll. More people have died in the conflict, but preventable diseases and starvation were the major causes of death. To prevent mass deaths, we need full-scale diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to end the war and manage its effects.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 37% chance the overall population in Sudan will face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and decrease to under 20 million by February 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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