Sudan war death toll much higher than previously recorded, new study finds

Published NOV 15 2024

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Above: Sudanese refugees from Ethiopia assemble in a UNHCR camp in Gallabat on September 4, 2024. Sudan's army, commanded by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has been fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, killing tens of thousands. Image copyright: AFP via Getty Images***PLEASE REPLACE WATERMARKED IMAGE***

The Spin

The actual death toll resulting from the ongoing unrest in Sudan remains unknown. An estimated 125K civilians have already died due to violence and hunger, according to available data. Sudan currently has the most extensive and most dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today.

Operation Broken Silence

As Sudan's civil war continues, over 90% of all-cause and violent fatalities in Khartoum State go undetected, implying that other regions also have a far larger death toll. More people have died in the conflict, but preventable diseases and starvation were the major causes of death. To prevent mass deaths, we need full-scale diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to end the war and manage its effects.

LSHTM

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 37% chance the overall population in Sudan will face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and decrease to under 20 million by February 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.