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Can you solve it? The infinite monkey theorem

Did you solve it? The infinite monkey theorem

Those typing monkeys will never produce Shakespeare’s works, mathematicians say

Elon Musk

Yoshua Bengio

Demis Hassabis

Melanie Mitchell

Stuart Russell

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Geoffrey Hinton

Yann LeCun

Gary Marcus

Max Tegmark

Shane Legg

Metaculus

Society is more likely to get "cat-level" or "dog-level" AI years before human-level AI.

"[W]e will eventually reach AGI... and quite possibly before the end of this century."

"Superhuman AIs" will be achieved "between a few years and a couple of decades."

"Digital intelligence" could overtake us within "5 to 20 years."

We may achieve "something like AGI or AGI-like in the next decade."

"[W]e could get to real AGI in the next decade."

"Human-level" AI could occur in "two or three years."

"I'd be surprised if we don't have AGI by [2029]."

Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence, and When?

A study published in the journal Franklin Open questioned the "Infinite Monkeys Theorem," which states that an infinite number of monkeys, given infinite time, would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare by typing randomly on a keyboard.

Sciencedirect

The study's authors say that while the theory is statistically possible, it doesn't account for finite time and resources, and thus is "misleading." Instead, they tested the theory by adjusting for when the universe will end and how the monkey population.

BBC News

Using a constant chimpanzee population of 200K — each with a 30-year lifespan and typing one letter per second — with a time limit for the estimated "heat death of the universe," the researchers found the chances of Shakespeare's works being written were effectively zero.

Newsweek

It also calculated the chances of shorter works and phrases, including the roughly 1.8K-word book "Curious George," and the roughly 83K-word book "Planet of the Apes." The chances of both being typed by the end of the universe were also effectively zero.

The phrase "I chimp, therefore I am" was found to have no chance of being typed before the death of all chimps, but almost a 100% chance by the end of the universe. And the word "banana" was given a 5% chance of occuring within one chimp's lifetime and a 100% chance for both the death of all chimps and the end of the universe.

Study Calls 'Infinite Monkey Theorem' Into Question

The Controversies

LeCun

Marcus

Bengio

Hinton

Hassabis

Altman

Amodei

Musk

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