Republic of Georgia's Ruling Party Claims Election Victory

Above: Georgian Dream Party supporters celebrate the exit poll results outside the new Georgian Dream headquarters on Oct. 26, 2024, in Tbilisi, Georgia. Image copyright: Diego Fedele/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Georgian Pres. Salome Zourabichvili has called for protests outside parliament on Monday after the country's ruling party, Georgian Dream, secured 54% of the vote in Saturday's disputed parliamentary election.

  • The country's electoral commission said that the Georgian Dream had won 89 seats in the 150-seat parliament — far more than the 76 needed to form a government and appoint a prime minister.

  • Georgia's opposition parties — Gvaramia, Melia, Girchi, and Droa — have claimed that the elections were "stolen" and will share evidence of election fraud with "local and international observers."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The opposition should feel disappointment that Georgian Dream may emerge as the winner. However, given the election violations reported, and the fact that the party is unlikely to secure a constitutional majority, the opposition must celebrate its own survival.


Establishment-critical narrative

Western powers sought to interfere in this election but to no avail. The people of Georgia delivered a decisive message of support and a clear mandate for a party that supports conservative values and, contrary to the smear campaigns, integration into Europe.



Metaculus Prediction




Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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