Polls: Harris and Trump in Tight Race Nationally and in Battlegrounds
Polls: Harris and Trump in Tight Race Nationally and in Battlegrounds
The Facts
With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, new polls indicate that former Pres. Donald Trump and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris are in a tight race, with the latter ahead in the FiveThirtyEight, 48.1% to 46.4%, and RealClearPolitics, 48.8% to 48.5%, averages.With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, polling indicates that Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris leads former Pres. Donald Trump by 48.1% to 46.4% according to FiveThirtyEight, and 48.8% to 48.5% according to RealClearPolitics.
Harris' best result is a Big Village poll where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, The Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP and USA Today/Suffolk.Harris's largest margin is a Big Village poll where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, The Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP and USA Today/Suffolk.
The Spin
Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple of weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on topics like immigration and the economy. Independent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate the voters he needs most.
