How Democrats Lost Ground on a Key Metric in 4 Swing States
TimeOct 23
Polls: Harris and Trump in Tight Race Nationally and in Battlegrounds
Above: Former US Pres. Donald Trump watches a video featuring US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris during a campaign rally at the Grand Sierra Resort on Oct. 11, 2024 in Reno, Nevada. Image copyright: Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images
The Facts
With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, polling indicates that Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris leads former Pres. Donald Trump by 48.0% to 46.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, and tied at 48.5% according to RealClearPolitics.
Harris' largest margin is in a Big Village poll, where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, The Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP, and USA Today/Suffolk.
The Spin
Republican narrative
Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win the Electoral College by an even greater margin than 2016 — and even to secure the popular vote.
Democratic narrative
A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple of weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on topics like immigration and the economy. Independent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate those he needs most.