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Snapshot 2:Fri, Oct 25, 2024 8:38:53 AM GMT last edited by JoseMoura

Polls Show Harris and Trump Tied Nationally and in Battlegrounds

Polls Show Harris and Trump Tied Nationally and in Battlegrounds

Above: Vice Pres. and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and former Pres. and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump shake hands ahead of the presidential debate on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. Image copyright: *** GETTY *** Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Facts

  • NationalWith less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, new polls indicate that former Pres. Donald Trump and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris are in a tight race, with the latter ahead in the FiveThirtyEight, 48.1% to 46.4%, and RealClearPolitics, 48.8% to 48.5%, averages.

  • HarrisHarris' best result is a Big Village poll where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP and USA Today/Suffolk.


The Spin

Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so thethese latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

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Metaculus Prediction



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