Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so thethese latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
GivenA thatslight shift in a few polls haveis shownnot a worry for Kamala Harris. consistentlyJust aheada couple of Trump,weeks Republicansago haveshe resortedwas toleading thein factall thatbut supportone forswing Trumpstate, and she was underestimatedeven ingaining theground previouson electiontopics cycleslike immigration and the economy. OneIndependent shouldvoters notare expectgoing them to bedecide inaccuratethis againelection, though,and asTrump's pollsterspersonality havewill workedonly continue to improvealienate theirthe methodologiesvoters he needs most.
There's a 53% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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