Al Jazeera

With nearly all votes counted, electoral authorities in Moldova on Monday said a slim majority of the nation backed a path toward EU membership — with 50.39% voters in favor and 49.61% against.

BBC News

However, the non-binding referendum in the nation of 2.5M people — which has emerged as a battleground for Russian and Western influence — was beset by allegations of foreign interference on both sides.

Moldova, which was formerly part of the Soviet Union till its collapse in 1990, gained its independence but became embroiled in a two-year civil war with Russian-speaking residents of Transnistria — a thin strip in the east. Following a settlement, that area seceded from Moldova and has remained under the control of Russian forces since.

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Moldova has had a pro-EU government since 2021. Its president, Maia Sandu, who was up for reelection on the same day as the referendum, accused criminal groups and foreign forces of attacking the country with "tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda," to sway the vote.

Sandu, who won the first round of her election with 42% of the vote, said there's "clear evidence" that "criminal groups" sought to buy 300K votes in a "fraud of unprecedented scale." She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russia former prosecutor general who came in second with roughly 26% of the vote, in a runoff on Nov. 3.

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With nearly all votes counted on Monday, electoral authorities in Moldova said a slim majority of the nation backed a path towards EU membership — with 50.39% of votes counted in favor, while 49.61% were against.

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However, the non-binding referendum in the nation of 2.5M people landlocked by Romania and Ukraine — the latest battleground for Russian and Western influence — was beset by allegations of foreign interference on both sides.

Formerly part of the Soviet Union till its collapse in 1990, Moldova then gained its independence but became embroiled in a two-year civil war with Russian-speaking residents of Transnistria — a thin strip in the east that, following a settlement, seceded from Moldova and has remained in the control of Russian forces since.

In the years after independence, Moldova's orbit has swayed between Russia and the West, but has had a pro-EU government since 2021. Its president, Maia Sandu, who faced a re-election vote the same day as the referendum, accused criminal groups and foreign forces of with attacking the country with "tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda," to sway the vote.

"We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300K votes — a fraud of unprecedented scale," Sandu continued. In her race, she was the leading vote-getter but with 42% her margin was lower than expected. She will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russia former prosecutor general, who came in second from 11 with roughly 26%.

Meanwhile, Russia's allegation was that votes in support of Sandu and EU membership saw "mechanical, hard to explain growth rates," as well as "abnormalities with the rise in these votes." The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that in spite of this and other alleged interference measures, it was "noteworthy" that no clear majority backed Sandu or the EU.

While these votes saw unprecedented levels of Russian interference, the result in this vote is a victory for Sandu's pro-EU agenda — albeit the margin was not as wide as previously expected.

Moldovans back joining the EU by razor-thin majority

The Kremlin observed a number of irregularities in these votes, including mechanical increases in vote tallies, but despite these and other measures to repress opposition groups, it is significant that a majority of people didn't back Sandu and the country remains split on whether to join the EU.

Abnormal voting for Sandu, Eurointegration seen in Moldovan election — Kremlin

There's a 1% chance that Moldova unite with Romania before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?

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Moldova Narrowly Backs Joining EU Amid Foreign Interference Claims

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There may be some disappointment from Sandu's supporters and her EU allies, but they shouldn't overlook that in the face of unprecedented levels of Russian interference, she and the EU referendum prevailed. Moldovans want to be part of the EU and that goal will be enshrined in the country's constitution.

The Kremlin observed a number of irregularities in these votes, including mechanical increases in vote tallies. Despite these and other measures carried out to repress opposition groups, it's significant that a majority of people still didn't back Sandu and the referendum passed by a razor-thin margin.

There's a 1% chance that Moldova will unite with Romania before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Daniel Mihailescu/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

Moldova Narrowly Backs Joining EU

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