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Snapshot 1:Mon, Oct 21, 2024 2:54:52 PM GMT last edited by Tareq

Moldova Narrowly Backs Joining EU Amid Foreign Interference Claims

Above: Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean (L), Pres. Maia Sandu (C) and President of the Parliament Igor Grosu (R) leave a press conference in Chisinau on October 21, 2024. Image copyright: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • With nearly all votes counted on Monday, electoral authorities in Moldova said a slim majority of the nation backed a path towards EU membership — with 50.39% of votes counted in favor, while 49.61% were against.

  • However, the non-binding referendum in the nation of 2.5M people landlocked by Romania and Ukraine — the latest battleground for Russian and Western influence — was beset by allegations of foreign interference on both sides.


The Spin

While these votes saw unprecedented levels of Russian interference, the result in this vote is a victory for Sandu's pro-EU agenda — albeit the margin was not as wide as previously expected.

The Kremlin observed a number of irregularities in these votes, including mechanical increases in vote tallies, but despite these and other measures to repress opposition groups, it is significant that a majority of people didn't back Sandu and the country remains split on whether to join the EU.


Metaculus Prediction


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