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Snapshot 2:Mon, Oct 21, 2024 2:53:40 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Moldova presidential election and EU referendum - Oct 21

Moldova presidential election and EU referendum - Oct 21

Above: Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean (L), Pres. Maia Sandu (C) and President of the Parliament Igor Grosu (R) leave a press conference in Chisinau on October 21, 2024. Image copyright: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • With nearly all votes counted on Monday, electoral authorities in Moldova said a slim majority of the nation backed a path towards EU membership — with 50.39% of votes counted in favor, while 49.61% were against.

  • However, the non-binding referendum in the nation of 2.5M people landlocked by Romania and Ukraine — the latest battleground for Russian and Western influence — was beset by allegations of foreign interference on both sides.

  • Formerly part of the Soviet Union till its collapse in 1990, Moldova then gained its independence but became embroiled in a two-year civil war with Russian-speaking residents of Transnistria — a thin strip in the east that, following a settlement, seceded from Moldova and has remained in the control of Russian forces since.


The Spin

While these votes saw unprecedented levels of Russian interference, the result in this vote is a victory for Sandu's pro-EU agenda — albeit the margin was not as wide as previously expected.


The Kremlin observed a number of irregularities in these votes, including mechanical increases in vote tallies, but despite these and other measures to repress opposition groups, it is significant that a majority of people didn't back Sandu and the country remains split on whether to join the EU.



Metaculus Prediction




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