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Snapshot 2:Tue, Sep 17, 2024 7:46:15 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • VP Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads her Republican counterpart, former Pres. Donald Trump, 51%-45% in the latest Morning Consult survey of likely voters, which was released Tuesday.

  • Harris' six-point lead and her popularity among likely voters are her best showings since she entered the race, replacing Pres. Joe Biden in July. Her lead has increased three points since she debated Trump on Sept. 10.


The Spin

Most AmericanAmericans disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

ItThere's easyno topost-debate buy into the media narrative that Harris has some sort of momentum. inThe her favor, but the data shows very few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. ThisPolling raceshows is going down to the wire, as evidenced by the razor-thin polling margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner, and that's what matters.


Metaculus Prediction



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