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Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Most Americans disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

Republican narrative

There's no post-debate momentum. The data shows few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. Polling shows razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner, and that's what matters.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



The Controversies



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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