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Snapshot 1:Tue, Sep 17, 2024 7:43:01 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

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The Spin

Most American disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

It's easy to buy into the media narrative that Harris has some sort of momentum in her favor, but the data shows very few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. This race is going down to the wire, as evidenced by the razor-thin polling margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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