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Snapshot 1:Tue, Sep 17, 2024 7:43:01 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

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The Facts

  • VP Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads her Republican counterpart, former Pres. Donald Trump, 51%-45% in the latest Morning Consult survey of likely voters, which was released Tuesday.

  • Harris' six-point lead and her popularity among likely voters are her best showings since she entered the race, replacing Pres. Joe Biden in July. Her lead has increased three points since she debated Trump on Sept. 10.

  • Previously, 61% of likely voters, including 20% of Republicans, said Harris performed best during the debate, while 33% said Trump won it.

The Spin

Most American disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

It's easy to buy into the media narrative that Harris has some sort of momentum in her favor, but the data shows very few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. This race is going down to the wire, as evidenced by the razor-thin polling margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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