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Venezuela's Opposition Candidate Flees to Exile in Spain

Above: Opposition candidate Edmundo González of the Plataforma Unitaria Democrática Coalition waves as he arrives to vote during the presidential election on July 28, 2024 in Caracas, Venezuela. Image copyright: Alfredo Lasry R/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Venezuela's opposition candidate Edmundo González arrived in Spain on Sunday, where he was granted political asylum, after fleeing his own country where he faced an arrest warrant for electoral sabotage and other charges related to the disputed presidential election.

  • Despite official claims that González himself requested political asylum from Spain, and was then granted the due safe conducts, sources alleged to El País that his exile is the result of talks that involved some of Nicolás Maduro's closest allies.


The Spin

Narrative A

Sadly, the president-elect had no option other than to flee to Spain, especially as actions against the Argentine embassy made it clear that there would be no such thing as a safe haven in Venezuela. From exile, González will be able to connect with the diaspora to help those fighting at home to ensure respect for the will of the people.

Narrative B

It's only natural that opposition leaders are expressing words of encouragement after González left the country, but Venezuelans are all too familiar with what happens now. From exile, the president-elect will see his leadership collapse and become a joke to the government. María Corina Machado is now the only hope for Venezuela.

Establishment-critical narrative

Once again, Nicolás Maduro and his government have shown good faith when it comes to dealing with US-backed opposition figures. Despite an arrest warrant for González on multiple charges including conspiracy and forgery of public documents, authorities in Venezuela granted him safe passage to leave the country so that peace can prevail.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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