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Snapshot 8:Thu, Aug 22, 2024 4:28:41 PM GMT last edited by Vandita

Study: Heat Deaths in Europe May Triple By 2100

Study: Heat deathsDeaths in Europe mayMay tripleTriple byBy end of the century, study finds2100

Above: On July 30, 2024, in Southend, England, police patrol Jubilee Beach as people gather in the hot, bright weather. That week, the UK Health authorities issued a yellow heat-related health warning for parts of England, forecasting temperatures to reach 32 °C Image copyright: Unsplash

The Facts

  • According to research published in the Lancet Public Health Journal on Wednesday, heat-related mortality in Europe may triple by the end of the century, from close to 44K to nearly 129K per year, with the numbers increasing disproportionately in southern European nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain.According to a study published in the Lancet Public Health Journal on Wednesday, heat-related mortality in Europe may triple by the end of the century, with the numbers increasing disproportionately in southern European nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain.

  • Based on modeling data from 30 European nations, the researchers concluded that if global warming surpasses a catastrophic 3°C or 4°C, the number of heat-related deaths will increase significantly, outweighing the decrease in cold-related deaths.Based on modeling data from 30 European nations, the researchers warned that heat-related deaths could increase from about 44K to nearly 129K per year, adding if global warming reaches 3°C, the number of heat-related deaths will outweigh the decrease in cold-related deaths.

  • According to the research, several European countries expect an increase in heat-related deaths due to their aging populations, particularly those aged 85 years and older.The study predicts that extreme temperatures could increase heat-related deaths by 13.5%, causing 55K more deaths (mostly among people aged 85 and above) annually.


The Spin


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Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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