Heat deaths in Europe may triple by end of the century, study finds
Heat deaths in Europe may triple by end of the century, study finds
The Facts
According to research published in the Lancet Public Health Journal on Wednesday, heat-related mortality in Europe may triple by the end of the century, from close to 44K to nearly 129K per year, with the numbers increasing disproportionately in southern European nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain.
Based on modeling data from 30 European nations, the researchers concluded that if global warming surpasses a catastrophic 3°C or 4°C, the number of heat-related deaths will increase significantly, outweighing the decrease in cold-related deaths.
The Spin
Temperature-related mortality risk in Europe would rise significantly as a result of climate change and an aging population, presenting new challenges to public health systems. Policymakers and health authorities can prevent health disparities from worsening by focusing on protecting more vulnerable areas and seniors. Improving resilience and adaptation in the forecasted high-risk areas, mostly in Southern Europe, could help to keep mortality numbers down.
Since people over 60 have more chronic conditions than younger people, heat waves fueled by climate change increase their risk of illness and death. Due to limited mobility and inability to get help, elderly people with low incomes may find themselves trapped in their homes in scorching heat if lacking AC. Others may need help with AC repairs, or assistance paying utility costs to keep the AC running. The demand for local services is likely to intensify. Cities can also set up cooling stations and distribute bottled water.
