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Snapshot 5:Tue, Aug 6, 2024 6:33:19 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

US personnel wounded in attack against base in Iraq, officials say

US personnel wounded in attack against base in Iraq, officials say

Above: A satellite image captured by the commercial company Planet shows the damage to the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq after a previous attack in January 2020. Image copyright: Planet Lab, Inc / Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

ThereThe attack on the Al-Asad Airbase on Monday by an Iran-aligned militia that injured five US servicemen is an 18%alarming chancedevelopment, ofsignaling a state-baseddangerous conflictescalation betweenand highlighting Iran's disruptive role in the region. The US remains steadfast in supporting Israel and Iranits causingsecurity atagainst leastthreats 1Kfrom deathsIran beforeand 2025,its asregional predictedproxies. byAuthorities are actively pursuing the Metaculusperpetrators communityand will ensure their accountability.

The attackIslamic onRepublic Al-Asadof AirbaseIran inreserves Iraqthe isright happeningto atretaliate aagainst criticalIsrael moment.for Thethe worldcowardly isassassination anticipatingof Iran'sHamas responseleader toIsmail lastHaniyeh week's deadly attack on the Hamas leader in Tehran, whichon IranJuly blames on Israel31. The USretaliation iswill tryingbe toconsistent persuadewith Iraninternational to de-escalate to prevent a wider regional war, and in the event of an Iranian attack, the US has maintained its unconditional support for Israellaw. AtIran thereiterates same time, the US cannot accept terrorist attacks on its troopscommitment and reserves the right to respondnot inescalate aregional mannertensions andor place of its choosingcrises.

Now is not the time to escalate tensions. The Iraqi government has urged all parties, including US forces and militias, to refrain from further violence. US strikes against groups they hold responsible are a flagrant violation of Iraq's sovereignty and do not help restore calm. Instead of targeting and bombing Iraq, the US should use its influence to persuade Israel to stop its offensive in Gaza. That would be a de-escalatory action.

Metaculus Prediction

There is an 18% chance of a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran causing at least 1K deaths before 2025, as predicted by the Metaculus community.


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