ThereThe isattack anon 18%Al-Asad chanceAirbase ofin Iraq happened at a state-basedcritical conflictmoment. betweenThe world is anticipating Iran's response to last week's deadly attack on the Hamas leader in Tehran, which Iran blames on Israel. andThe US is trying to persuade Iran causingto atde-escalate leastto 1Kavoid deathsa beforewider 2025regional war. In the event of an Iranian attack, asthe predictedUS byhas maintained its unconditional support for Israel. At the Metaculussame communitytime, the US cannot accept terrorist attacks on its troops and reserves the right to respond in a manner and place of its choosing.
There is an 18% chance of a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran causing at least 1K deaths before 2025, as predicted by the Metaculus community.
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