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Snapshot 4:Tue, Aug 6, 2024 4:25:38 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

US personnel wounded in attack against base in Iraq, officials say

US personnel wounded in attack against base in Iraq, officials say

Above: A satellite image captured by the commercial company Planet shows the Ain al-Assad air base in Iraq being struck by a previous attack in January 2020. Image copyright: Planet Lab, Inc / Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

There is an 18% chance of a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran causing at least 1K deaths before 2025, as predicted by the Metaculus community.

The attack on Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq is happening at a critical moment. The world is anticipating Iran's response to last week's deadly attack on the Hamas leader in Tehran, which Iran blames on Israel. The US is trying to persuade Iran to de-escalate to prevent a wider regional war, and in the event of an Iranian attack, the US has maintained its unconditional support for Israel. At the same time, the US cannot accept terrorist attacks on its troops and reserves the right to respond in a manner and place of its choosing.


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