Why the Bank of England isn’t lowering rates yet
Spectator (UK)MAY 2024
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
With many expecting the BoE to remain firm at 5.25%, today's decision is a small win for the property and mortgage markets. With lenders already beginning to bring down prices, the news is reaffirmation to many that things are slowly but surely getting better.
Establishment-critical narrative
A small reduction in the BoE's interest rate will do next to nothing for millions who have been affected by the cost of living crisis. While the UK may be over the worst of the post-pandemic era, and an interest rate cut will certainly be of some help to small groups, the economy irrespectively remains extremely fragile.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading economy by 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.