France Election: Massive Mobilization of the Left
Socialist ProjectAUG 2024
Macron Says French Caretaker Govt to Stay on Through Olympics
Above: French President Emmanuel Macron addresses during a IOC Session meeting ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 24, 2024 in Various Cities, France. Image copyright: Arturo Holmes/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The leftist bloc may have agreed on Lucie Castets as their candidate for prime minister for now, but it's uncertain how long their coalition will endure as the Socialists and LFI remain at odds. Given that the Socialist Party is likely to soon break away from its radical allies and join a mainstream coalition, Macron is right to wait.
Establishment-critical narrative
Macron is on a dangerous path against both the leftist New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally in a desperate power grab after his camp suffered a massive defeat in legislative elections. As he does so, he denies democracy and undermines the republic's institutions and the sovereignty of the people.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 56% chance that French president Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislative election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.