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Study: Highly-Affordable 'Vaccine-Like' HIV Drug Possible

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The Facts

  • A drug described as "the closest we have ever been to an HIV vaccine" that currently costs over $40K per person per year, could be made to cost less than $40 for each patient, according to newly-released research.

  • Early trials have found that Lenacapavir, developed by US pharmaceutical company Gilead, is nearly 100% effective in preventing HIV infection. The drug is also easier to administer than current preventative regimens that require daily pills, with Lenacapavir needing only two injections per year.


The Spin

Narrative A

It is still too early for Gilead to be able to predict what the cost of Lenacapavir as a pre-exposure prophylaxis will be. The research presented on Tuesday has not been peer-reviewed, and thus while it is hopeful, it shouldn't be given too much weight. Gilead is working to ensure that the drug will be widely accessible in the future, but it's too early to declare this drug as an HIV panacea.

Narrative B

Gilead has the opportunity to save many lives. This drug could be a game changer in stopping the spread of HIV if it's widely available and offered at an affordable price. Cost still remains a huge barrier to access to the drug, with the price currently over 40K dollars annually for each patient. If a generic version of the drug was offered at an affordable price the world may be able to meet the 2030 goal of ending new HIV transmissions.


Metaculus Prediction


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