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Snapshot 7:Fri, Jun 21, 2024 7:05:40 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Polls Show Trump Leading Biden in Battleground States

Polls Show Trump Leading Biden in Battleground States

Image copyright: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

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  • The latest Ipsos poll released on Thursday found that former Pres. Donald Trump has a two-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden, 37% to 35%, overall in the seven swing states, with 15% of the voters undecided and another 10% supporting third-party candidates.


The Spin

These polls, and ones showing Trump is in a dead heat with Biden in places that haven't voted Democrat in decades, are great news for the former president. Considering how he outperformed his polling numbers in the past two presidential elections, these results suggest that he's heading for a landslide win in November to secure his return to the White House.

There's plenty of time left for Biden to overtake Trump in the battleground states before Election Day. But the Biden campaign's message must change from casting Trump as an existential threat to democracy to an economy-based message that'll rally the Democratic base and sway disengaged swing voters who currently are leaning toward Trump.


Metaculus Prediction



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