Who has the 'Keys to the White House'? Historian with ace record calling elections weighs in on Trump verdict
FOX NewsJUN 15 2024
Polls Show Trump Leading Biden in Battleground States
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The Facts
Former US Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has a two-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden, 37%-35% overall in the seven swing states, according to the latest Ipsos poll released Thursday. In addition 15% of voters are undecided and 10% support third-party candidates.
In a two-way race, Trump leads by four points in the Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and by two points in the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina). In the Southwest (Arizona and Nevada), Biden's up one point.
New Emerson/The Hill polls in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Trump edging Biden in all of them, with his lead ranging from one to four points.
The Spin
Republican narrative
These polls, and ones showing Trump is in a dead heat with Biden in places that haven't voted Democrat in decades, are great news for the former president. Considering how he outperformed his polling numbers in the past two presidential elections, these results suggest that he's heading for a landslide win in November to secure his return to the White House.
Democratic narrative
There's plenty of time left for Biden to overtake Trump in the battleground states before Election Day. But the Biden campaign's message must change from casting Trump as an existential threat to democracy to an economy-based message that'll rally the Democratic base and sway disengaged swing voters who currently are leaning toward Trump.