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Snapshot 5:Fri, Jun 21, 2024 6:13:50 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Battleground States

Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Battleground States

Image copyright: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

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  • The latest Ipsos poll released on Thursday found that former Pres. Donald Trump has a two-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden, 37% to 35%, overall in the seven swing states, with 15% of the voters undecided and another 10% supporting third-party candidates.


The Spin

Given that Trump has outperformed his polling numbers in the past two presidential elections, these results in battleground and deep-blue states can only suggest that the 45th president is heading for a landslide win in November to secure his return to the White House.

Polls in swing states indicate that Biden cannot rely exclusively on the fact that Trump does pose an existential threat to democracy to win over disengaged voters. It's the economy — and particularly how voters actually feel about it — that will decide the presidential election, so the Biden campaign must focus on policies to reduce the cost of living.


Metaculus Prediction



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