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UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat

UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat

UK Elections: Savanta Poll Forecasts PM Sunak to Lose Seat
Image credit: Lean Neal/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as stringstrong a representation in Parliament as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.

WholeWhile Labour’s ascension to power is practically inevitable, securing as large a majority as possible remains a priority that will allow Keir Starmer to govern quickly and effectively. Labour has a lot to fix after a decade-plus of Tory rule, and an overwhelming majority in Parliament would allow the party to govern as it pleases. Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.

Despite Savanta's prediction that Reform will win no seats, it is important to note that polling began only days after Farage's return to the helm of the party, andwhich havehas since witnessed a surge in popularity. Irrespectively, the message is clear Sunak and his party no longer hold the support of the British public.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that Labour will win at least 422 seats in the UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0