Uk Election: Polls Forecast Doom for Tories, Sunak May Lose Seat
The Facts
A series of recent UK election polls show Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives on the brink of a record defeat in the July 4 election, with one suggesting Sunak may lose his own seat in Richmond and become the first prime minister to ever lose his seat in parliament.
Three polls released on Wednesday by YouGov, Savanta, and More in Common project Keir Starmer’s Labour to win between 406 and 516 out of 650 seats in the House of Commons, with the Tories on pace to win the fewest seats in its two centuries-long history.
The Spin
It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as representative a showing as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.
Labour’s ascension to power is all-but-inevitable, but securing as large a majority as possible will allow Keir Starmer to govern more quickly and effectively. After a decade-plus of Tory rule, Labour has a lot on its agenda, and an overwhelming majority in parliament would allow the new ruling party to govern as it wants. While the overall result is in hand, Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.