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Uk Election: Polls Forecast Doom for Tories, Sunak May Lose Seat

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The Spin

It would be disingenuous to suggest that the Tories still have a chance to remain in power after next month’s election, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to stop the bleeding. Polls forecast varying levels of doom, and it’s important for the party’s morale, and potentially its survival, to have as representative a showing as possible. Sunak and his party need to keep up the fight and show how Conservative policies are working, even if it’s too late to win a majority of seats.

Labour’s ascension to power is all-but-inevitable, but securing as large a majority as possible will allow Keir Starmer to govern more quickly and effectively. After a decade-plus of Tory rule, Labour has a lot on its agenda, and an overwhelming majority in parliament would allow the new ruling party to govern as it wants. While the overall result is in hand, Labour must keep its foot on the gas and win the largest electoral mandate in British history.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that Labour will win at least 422 seats in the UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0