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Thailand: Former PM Indicted on Royal Defamation Charges

Above: Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra Image copyright: Lauren DeCicca/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Thaksin must be held accountable for his corruption. Despite his indictments and previous parole status, he decided to act as a de facto diplomat by meeting with foreign governments. Instead of allowing the MFP to take charge and make real change, Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party is also proposing economic policies that would benefit his corporate friends over working-class people.

Narrative B

Thaksin's wealth doesn't mean he's an elitist. Consider how he garnered a voter base of working-class Thais, and how his anti-monarchy platform inspired regular people to speak out. If the military establishment didn't crack down on him and his supporters through coups and lawfare, he wouldn't be facing these charges.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that Thailand experiences a coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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