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South Africa: Former Pres. Jacob Zuma Barred From Election

Published MAY 20 2024

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Above: Former South African President Jacob Zuma speaks at the MK Party Manifesto rally on May 18, 2024, at Orlando Stadium, Soweto, South Africa. Image copyright: Per-Anders Pettersson/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Jacob Zuma is a dangerous demagogue, with his supporters threatening violence if he were to be removed from the ballot. His imprisonment led to rioting that claimed the lives of hundreds — which he has still refused to condemn. The court did the right thing to uphold the constitution, especially in the face of a corrupt strongman who thinks he's above the law.

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Establishment-critical narrative

The former president is the true standard-bearer of the ANC's mission of liberation, which has been corrupted by Ramaphosa and his inner circle. Zuma attracts his support from those disgruntled with the monarchical ANC, which is failing South Africa on every front. The ruling does little to blunt his appeal to a broad cross-section of society that is desperate for change.

The Conversation

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance the African National Congress will get at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.