Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Jake Sullivan

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian

Rajan Menon

Barbara Slavin

Hussein Ibish

Bashir Saade

Michael DiMino

Raz Zimmt

Joost Hiltermann

Arash Reisinezhad

Gary Samore

Negar Mortazavi

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

Sinan Ülgen

Comfort Ero

Karim Mezran

Nicola Pedde

Tor Wennesland

Hasnain Kazim

Mark Montgomery

Alex Vatanka

Fabrice Balanche

Metaculus

"Tehran will not send its military into the war zone to help Hamas."

"There are good reasons to believe that Iran has decided not to enter the conflict directly."

"The likelihood of an expanded regional war... is low."

"[T]he risk of direct US involvement in the [Israel-Hamas war]... is higher than most people realize."

Despite no country wanting a regional conflict, "each country acts in such a way that exponentially increases its likelihood."

"[D]evelopments on the ground have the potential to escalate quickly, making the unthinkable [a major Middle East war] unavoidable."

The Israel-Hamas war "raises the very real risk of a catastrophic regional conflagration."

"[T]he risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous."

“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable.”

“Everything is in place for a cascading series of events that will culminate in Israel attacking Iran.”

Will the Israel-Gaza War Lead to Regional Escalation?

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Yaakov Amidror

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John Kirby

The US has not seen any Israeli plans "that would convince us that they are about to or imminently going to conduct any kind of major operations in Rafah."

"It [Rafah] is a red line, but I am never going to leave Israel."

An invasion of Rafah "is not imminent... but it will have to be done."

"Those who think we are delaying [the invasion of Rafah] will soon see there is no place we cannot reach."

"The operation in Rafah will happen."

"It will happen, and all that remains to be decided is the method and force."

"We're going to do it. We're going to get the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion, but we're going to do it."

"If by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue to the Rafah area."

Will Israel Expand Its Ground Invasion to Rafah?

Colombian Pres. Gustavo Petro Wednesday announced severing diplomatic ties with Israel over the Gaza war and "for having a genocidal president."

Washington Post

Colombian Pres. Gustavo Petro Wednesday announced severing diplomatic ties with Israel over the Gaza war, and called its president and government "genocidal."

Colombia's left-wing Pres. Gustavo Petro announced on Wednesday that the country will sever diplomatic ties with Israel, whose government he described as "genocidal" for its actions in Gaza.

Colombia's left-wing Pres. Gustavo Petro announced Wednesday that the country will sever diplomatic ties with Israel, whose government he described as "genocidal" for its actions in Gaza.

Colombia News

Once formally notified of this decision, the Israeli ambassador to Bogotá and his staff will have 72 hours to leave Colombia. Previously, Colombia's ambassador to Tel Aviv had already been recalled and arms purchases had been suspended.

Once formally notified of this decision, the Israeli ambassador to Bogotá and his staff will have 72 hours to leave Colombia. Previously, Colombia's ambassador to Tel Aviv was recalled and arms purchases were suspended.

The Hill

Petro's declaration at a May Day rally in Bogotá has singed one of Israel's closest ties in South America. Colombia is the top foreign buyer of Israel's Kfir jet fighter.

Petro's May Day declaration in Bogotá has singed one of Israel's closest ties in South America. Colombia is the top foreign buyer of Israel's Kfir jet fighter.

New York Times

Colombia is the third Latin American country to cut relations with Israel over the Gaza war, as Bolivia and Belize severed ties in November. Chile and Honduras have also recalled their ambassadors to Israel.

Colombia is the third Latin American country to cut relations with Israel over the war in Gaza, as Bolivia and Belize severed ties in November. Chile and Honduras have also recalled their ambassadors to Israel.

Jerusalem Post

Petro had earlier requested to join South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice.

Times of Israel

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz retorted that Colombia's Leftist leader was “antisemitic” and had decided to stand with "the most vile monsters."

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that Petro was “antisemitic and full of hatred" and that he wouldn't change the historically close relations between both countries.

Al Jazeera

In October, following Petro's allegation that its Defense Minister's language resembled Nazi rhetoric, Israel suspended its security exports to Colombia.

Last month, Colombia requested to join the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice concerning alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in the Gaza Strip.

Colombia follows Bolivia which, in November, became the first South American nation to cut ties with Israel. Chile and Honduras have recalled their envoys to Tel Aviv.

Petro had also earlier requested to join South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice.

Associated Press

Petro also announced earlier this year the suspension of purchases of weapons from Israel, months after Israel halted security exports to Colombia over remarks comparing the siege on Gaza to the actions of Nazi Germany.

Petro earlier this year also announced the suspension of purchases of weapons from Israel, months after Israel halted security exports to Colombia over remarks comparing the siege on Gaza to the actions of Nazi Germany.

Washington Post #340

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Associated Press #2482

Israel faces increasing isolation in the international community. But Israel's history of isolation hasn't hindered its growth, and the nation has prioritized its own interests, especially in the matters of defense. Despite international alienation, Israel remains resolute in its actions. The world's loss in cutting ties with Israel will be significant.

Above the Fold: Isolating Israel will hurt the world more than it will hurt Israel

The list of countries that have either recalled ambassadors or severed diplomatic ties with Israel is only growing. Israeli unrestrained violence in Gaza has been compared to apartheid and subjected to accountability in international courts. Yet, the US and some Western allies have yet to pressure Israel enough for it to change course significantly.

The New Arab

The growing diplomatic backlash against Israel's war on Gaza

There is a 76% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

Israel Invasion of Rafah Before June 1, 2024?

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Colombia To Sever Diplomatic Ties With Israel Over Gaza War

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Actions to isolate Israel will only hurt the countries that choose to cut ties. Israel's history of isolation hasn't hindered its growth, as the nation has prioritized its own interests, especially in matters of defense. Despite international alienation, Israel remains resolute in doing what it needs to do to survive.

Israel's unrestrained violence in Gaza has been compared to apartheid and makes it subjected to accountability by international courts, so it's no surprise the list of countries rightly cutting ties with Israel is growing. It's time for the US and other Western allies to pressure Israel enough for it to change course significantly.

There's a 76% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Adam Gray/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

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