Israel's response to Iran's massive strike on Saturday was lower than anticipated, but the message to Tehran was obvious. Jerusalem can breach Iran's air defenses and attack its nuclear sites whenever it wants. Thursday's drone assault demonstrates that both sides are capable of causing significant harm to the other side, and we may be witnessing the beginning of a return to deterrence.
Iran's military action against Israel on April 14 was based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, which guarantees the legitimate right to self-defense, and was in reaction to Israel's murderous attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria two weeks prior. The rebellious regime of Israel violated international law when it struck Iran on Thursday. However, due to its restricted scope, it does not require an immediate response. It is not in Iran's interest to further escalate the conflict.
There is a 40% chance Iran will recognize Israel before 1070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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