While Western sanctions are an important step to defanging Iran's dangerous drone manufacturing programs, even more should be done. The US's previous sanctions on Iranian drone makers in 2023 have earlier prompted Russia to help Iran in this arena. TeheranTehran's pivot towards Russia posesis risksdangerous ofgeopolitically potential backlash in the region and givesallows itIran confidence to manoeuvreskirt the consequences of sanctions regime. Essentially,Western thepowers USneed needs to dobuild muchon moresanctions thanand meretarget imposingdismantling sanctionsIranian todrone defangcapabilities Iran'sand dronethe capabilitiesnations that enable it.
Iran's bold attack on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, though ineffective, has posed a challenge for its Western allies to balance support for Israel with restraint. The attack may push them towards nuclearincreasing and dangerous escalation, potentially triggering further conflict with Israel. The situation remains highly unpredictable and fraught with risks, and Western hegemonic powers have proved unable to dampen the escalation potential.
There is a 20% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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