Claims
Noel Brewer“As a formal matter, the U.S. does not seem destined to lose its elimination status in 2026 in terms of the PAHO definition.”Jan 21, 2026
William Moss“The U.S. is at risk of losing its measles elimination status should cases continue at this rate. As vaccine confidence continues to be undermined, immunization is more important than ever to end this outbreak and prevent future outbreaks from occurring.”Jan 28, 2026
Walter A. Orenstein“A lot of us are sort of like — we kind of deserve to lose our elimination status because everything we’re doing is unraveling it."Jan 21, 2026
M. Anthony Moody"I do think that the likelihood that we're going to lose status, especially if things continue the way that they're going, is I think pretty high."Nov 22, 2025
Nathan Lo"One that’s conceivable is that vaccine coverage continues to drop, measles outbreaks become larger and more frequent, and eventually measles becomes endemic again. "Jan 26, 2026
AJMC"The simulation model revealed that at current state-level vaccination rates, measles is likely to become endemic again in the US, with an 83% probability and a mean time to endemicity of 20.9 years, resulting in an estimated 851,300 cases over 25 years."Jun 24, 2025
Stanford Medicine" Even at current immunization rates, researchers predict that measles may become endemic again — circulating in the U.S. — within two decades; with small declines in vaccination, this could happen more quickly."Jan 26, 2026
Mathew Kiang“Whether or not we officially lose elimination status is an academic exercise at this point.”Jan 23, 2026
Mathew Kiang"Measles would become endemic in less than five years, and rubella would become endemic in less than 20. Under these conditions, polio became endemic in about half of simulations in around 20 year."Jan 26, 2026
Demetre Daskalakis“I’m going to say that elimination is already lost, frankly, no matter what any other body says, based on what we’re seeing domestically now.”Jan 21, 2026
AJMC“Based on estimates from this modeling study, declining childhood vaccination rates will increase the frequency and size of outbreaks of previously eliminated vaccine-preventable infections, eventually leading to their return to endemic levels.” Jun 24, 2025
Mathew Kiang"With measles, we found that we’re already on the precipice of disaster. If vaccination rates remain the same, the model predicts that measles may become endemic within about 20 years."Jan 26, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0