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Do U.S. arms sales to Taiwan fuel dangerous separatism or provide essential defense against aggression?
Above: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. Image credit: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
Washington's massive weapons sales to Taiwan grossly violate the one-China principle and deliberately fuel separatism while hypocritically claiming peaceful intentions. These arms deals embolden dangerous independence forces and push the region toward armed conflict. Reunification remains inevitable regardless of how many weapons flood the island.
Anti-China narrative
Arms sales to Taiwan represent essential deterrence against Beijing's military aggression and rehearsals for invasion around the island. The weapons package helps Taiwan develop critical asymmetric capabilities to defend itself against a larger adversary. Strengthening Taiwan's defense capacity through trade and military cooperation serves mutual strategic interests.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
Go Deeper
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0