Talks should honor Iran's 10-point framework and deliver a Lebanon ceasefire in addition to the release of frozen assets before anything else. Ongoing Israeli strikes and Hormuz pressure prove that only firm guarantees can stop renewed aggression. Negotiations should favor de-escalation with real security, not another empty truce.
Peace rewards shouldn't flow to a regime running a Tehran toll booth, menacing ships and choreographing human shields. Maximum pressure and real enforcement will restore Hormuz transit and stop Lebanon's proxy war faster than cash infusions or preconditions. The U.S. must walk into the Pakistan talks with skepticism and leverage or Iran will just renege on any deal.
There's a 67% chance that Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran does not get a nuclear bomb by then, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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