Rubio Details Ambitious Venezuela Plan, Claims No Cost to U.S.
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Rubio Outlines Three-Phase Plan for Venezuela
Is the U.S. repeating its mistakes in Iraq, or is the Trump administration in control of Venezuela?
Above: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio alongside U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Jan. 7. Image credit: Heather Diehl/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Regime-controlled institutions would not allow anyone other than Delcy Rodríguez to take office despite broad popular support for the opposition, so the only realistic path to stability in Venezuela is to work with Rodríguez and her circle. The good news is that Trump holds maximum leverage over them through credible military force and legal threats — they either follow orders or face a second strike.
Anti-Trump narrative
Though the Trump administration claims that Venezuela is not Iraq 2.0, the actual plan is far from clear and the similarities are striking. Now, like then, the U.S. is promising a limited intervention to temporarily run the country. As Trump has a long record of apparent great achievements that collapse upon contact with a complex reality, this nation-building effort in the Western Hemisphere is likely to become a disaster.
Anti-Maduro narrative
Keeping Maduro's discredited inner circle in control while sidelining the democratic opposition creates perverse incentives for looting and instability as the ones in office face inevitable electoral defeat. Real stability requires recognizing the actual 2024 election results and facilitating a time-bound transfer to legitimate leadership, not postponing democracy indefinitely under the guise of managed transition.
Pro-Maduro narrative
Venezuela's revolutionary state remains intact and functional despite the illegal abduction of Maduro. The U.S. military operation, while brutal, actually exposed imperialism's weakness by avoiding full invasion due to eight million armed militia members and domestic opposition to war. That the country's leadership has called for negotiation is a strategic retreat under duress, not capitulation, preserving state power as a base for future struggle.
Metaculus Prediction
Go Deeper
Establishment split
CRITICAL
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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0