JPMorgan: UK Unemployment to Hit 5.5%, Surpass Pandemic Peak

Is the U.K. jobs market collapsing under government policies or has it stabilized and is poised for recovery?

Published 1 day ago

JPMorgan: UK Unemployment to Hit 5.5%, Surpass Pandemic Peak

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Above: A view towards the financial district and Wentworth Street in London on Feb. 20. Image credit: Richard Baker/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The jobs market is collapsing under the weight of disastrous government policies, with unemployment set to surge past pandemic levels to 5.5% as businesses refuse to hire after getting hammered by a £25 billion ($17.3 billion) National Insurance raid and reckless minimum wage hikes. Young workers are being priced out of the market entirely, with youth unemployment hitting 16.1% — the highest in over a decade — while graduate hiring has plummeted by well over 10% in recent years.

American Spectator The Telegraph

Narrative B

The labor market has actually stabilized and is poised for recovery, with data revisions showing 50,000 fewer job losses than initially reported and worker churn picking up — a clear sign the bottom has been reached. Employment is still rising alongside unemployment because more people are entering the workforce, which reflects healthy participation rates rather than mass layoffs. Incoming rate cuts will also support gradual improvement.

Julian Jessop on Substack Recruitonomics