GENERAL LICENSE NO. 49
US Department of the Treasury1 day
Trump Plans to Visit Venezuela, US Eases More Sanctions
Is Trump's Venezuela strategy risking a disastrous Iraq repeat or is it brilliant diplomacy that avoids nation-building chaos?
Above: Protesters in Caracas hold Venezuelan and U.S. flags while demanding the release of political prisoners on Feb. 12, 2026. Image credit: Jonathan Lanza/NurPhoto/Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump's handling of Venezuelan oil mirrors the disastrous Iraq invasion, with opaque dealings through bribe-tainted Swiss traders and zero independent oversight. Big oil companies are calling Venezuela "uninvestable" just like they rejected Iraq, while the administration pushes fantasy production targets ignoring security chaos and institutional collapse. The lack of U.N. involvement or auditing that existed with Iraqi oil revenues leaves Venezuelans completely unprotected from exploitation.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is executing a brilliant strategy by using Chavista puppets to clean out Venezuela's corrupt military without boots on the ground or nation-building disasters. Making Delcy Rodríguez the transition leader forces the Chavistas to dismantle their own drug cartel networks under threat of a second strike. This 3D chess move avoids Iraq-style chaos while positioning Venezuela for a real democratic transition that benefits both nations' energy interests.
Pro-Maduro narrative
It's no coincidence that Trump has announced plans to visit Venezuela just after Secretary Wright left the country. As the United States' large-scale military aggression and kidnapping of Maduro last month failed to produce a regime change, Washington has been forced to negotiate with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodríguez and Chavismo.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0