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Russia, Ukraine and US Report Progress After Fresh Round of UAE Talks

Is the war really on the verge of ending or are there still reasons to be pessimistic?
Above: U.S., Ukrainian and Russian delegations meet in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4, 2026. Image credit: United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Thanks to President Trump's leadership, as well as the UAE's generous hosting of these negotiations, teams from the U.S., Ukraine and Russia have had detailed and productive talks in which the exchange of 314 prisoners was agreed. This is the first time in five months that such an exchange will take place and while a lot of work remains, this shows that sustained diplomacy is delivering tangible results. More progress is expected to be made in the coming weeks.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia is hopeful for peace and is doing everything it can to ensure the process is alive and productive. At the same time, there is some skepticism about whether the Ukrainian government is genuinely committed to peace. Zelenskyy and his entire team know that as soon as the war stops, their time in power ends. It's in their interest to keep the conflict going.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Not only does Russia want full territorial control of the whole Donbas region — which is something that Ukraine cannot agree — it now wants the negotiating countries to recognize it as being legitimate Russian territory. Russia continues to make unrealistic demands as the aggressor country.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO



© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0