Russia is actively laying the groundwork for hybrid attacks against the Baltic states and Poland, using drones, missiles and disinformation to pressure NATO into abandoning Ukraine. Latvian intelligence is sounding the alarm that Putin — isolated and fed only good news by his inner circle — is dangerously prone to miscalculation. The eastern flank is already in a highly unstable situation, and NATO members must stay unified or risk handing Moscow exactly the opening it's looking for.
NATO's military buildup near Kaliningrad is the real provocation here, with alliance forces massing along the Suwalki Gap and squadrons deploying within striking distance of Russian territory. Russia has made clear that Kaliningrad can defend itself and that mainland Russia stands fully behind its westernmost region. Framing defensive Russian posturing as aggression ignores who keeps escalating the military presence on Russia's doorstep.
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