Last Russia-US treaty on nuclear arms control set to expire
Al Jazeera9 hrs
New START: Last US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires
Does New START's end show U.S. negligence or is Russia exploiting the lapse for unconstrained nuclear expansion?
Above: Russian RS-24 Yars intercontinental nuclear launchers ride during the Red Square Military Parade's rehearsal, May 7, 2025. Image credit: Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia offered to maintain New START treaty limits for another year but received no formal response from Washington, underscoring Moscow’s stated commitment to strategic stability. The lapse leaves both powers without guardrails as the Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight, heightening global risk. While Russia signals continued openness to dialogue, Trump has shown little interest in engagement. Time is rapidly running out to prevent an unchecked arms race that increases the likelihood of nuclear war through accident or miscalculation.
Anti-Russia narrative
The expiration of New START follows Russia’s deliberate hollowing out of the last remaining nuclear arms control framework, plunging the global balance into instability. Moscow can rapidly expand its deployed arsenal through warhead uploads while fielding unconstrained systems such as nuclear-powered torpedoes designed to evade limits altogether. With inspections and data exchanges ended — and China outside any binding framework — worst-case planning is unavoidable, sharply increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
Narrative C
The unraveling of New START reflects the erosion of U.S.–Russia strategic dialogue amid war, sanctions, and mutual distrust, leaving the world without binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals. Russia’s suspension of inspections and the United States’ limited progress toward a successor framework have weakened verification and transparency. Without renewed restraint and engagement, this path risks entrenching a more unstable and dangerous nuclear order.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
Go Deeper
Establishment split
CRITICAL
PRO
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0